The evolving geo-strategic framework inexorably impels countries in Southeast Asia to accept China and India as major regional powers.In the first case it is a question of accommodating the inevitable. In the latter, it is a necessary consequence of the former.
China and India are not only the great powers of tomorrow but of yesteryear. Each represents ancestral cradles of Asian civilization.
China in recent years has been an example of diplomatic transformation in turning regional perceptions. Not long ago the rhetoric on China was one of "containment" and "threat".
Now, everyone in Southeast Asia can think of nothing but a full-blown engagement.
Beijing has also shown an unequaled zest in its economic diplomacy with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN.
Delhi on the other hand has been a late bloomer.
More than just friends, India and Indonesia are actually fraternal allies beyond the two following each other in country lists in the almanac or encyclopedia. The kinship sinks deep into the psyche -- China dominated our culinary regime, India underpins the customs which define our culture.
For Indonesia, culture plays an important role, particular in bilateral ties with India.
The Indian sub-continent is home of the bajaj, the rhythmic source of dangdut music, the land where Rama lost and regained Sinta, the plains of the great Mahabharata wars.
Our laymen are obsessed with Bollywood, as children learn of Gandhi and Nehru as they would Sukarno. India is the great, imperfect democracy Indonesia aspires to be.
Modernity may have sharpened distinctiveness between India and Indonesia, but the similarities more important than the differences.
Hence it is extraordinary that with its comparative softpower advantages India has not projected a stronger preponderance in this region.
Despite the initial activism of the Nehru era, India became self-preoccupied leading to a latent detachment from Southeast Asia.
It was not until the introduction of the "Look East" policy in 1992 that Delhi again began giving this region due importance in foreign policy.
While the policy suggests a strategy of global power, decades of disconnection from Southeast Asia has made alternating India's own self-perception from an Indian Ocean power to a regional one difficult.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh described the Look East policy as "a strategic shift in India's vision of the world".
However Indians themselves seem hesitant as to their place in ASEAN's security architecture.
Rarely displayed is the enthusiasm within India towards this role the way Indonesia, for example, perceives its leadership of ASEAN as providence.
One reason seems to be the fear that an assertive India would be misconstrued by its neighbors, particularly China and Pakistan.
"If India takes the lead it will be seen as an Indian hegemony again," Sujit Dutta, Senior Fellow at India's Institute for Defense Studies and Analysis, told The Jakarta Post recently in New Delhi.
"So it has to be done indirectly," he added.
With India-Pakistan relations entering a period of positivism and India-Sino ties also on an upward trend, perhaps there is now more room for Delhi to maneuver.
Dutta also points out that China was more prepared for engagement with Asia given its hastier and stronger economic rise, while India has only recently acquired the necessary economic clout.
Then there is the domestic debate within India that is common in many fast growing developing nations: That of the growing disparity between the prospering few and marginalized many.
In the words of one Indian politician, perhaps it is more important to address the inequities between "shining India" and "suffering India" before exerting itself beyond established frontiers.
Since becoming a full dialog partner to ASEAN in 1995 and joining the ASEAN Regional Forum in 1996, cooperation between India and the grouping has hastened, albeit with very moderate influence.
In 2003 India acceded to Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. It has also inked several arrangements to underscore its commitment with ASEAN. Among them is an economic cooperation agreement to establish an FTA and a Partnership for Peace, Progress and Shared Prosperity.
Nevertheless there is still lingering uncertainty on whether India truly acknowledges and accepts the kind of role Indonesia and ASEAN hopes it to play in the strategic environment.
Indian officials and analysts are reluctant to openly talk about "balance of power", cognizant that such rhetoric could pit them in adversarial terms with China. But in private, they acknowledge China has some ways to go before it proves to be a responsible regional power.
ASEAN's logic has been to strategically include major powers in regional security arrangements which then offset any single power from dominating. This in turn allows ASEAN to remain independent as the primary driving force in its own region.
India needs to be active here in a peaceful and productive manner to become a psychological deterrent to China's increasing influence and gradual domination of this region.
That is why Indonesia was so adamant three years ago about including India in the East Asia Summit process.
"Chindia" corresponds to the two wings of ASEAN's future flight into peace and prosperity.
Today's talk here between the foreign ministers of India and Indonesia, capping off a series of senior official meetings, is another opportunity for India to enhance bilateral relations and raise its comfort level in engaging ASEAN.
ASEAN wants India's presence as much as India needs to be active in the region.
To realize its role as a global power India requires the economic access points provided by ASEAN's network to the world's fastest growing region of East and Southeast Asia.
Furthermore ASEAN makes available a strategic framework and regulated forum with which India can bluntly interact with economic powers Japan and South Korea along with fellow regional power China.
This is an opportunity in which Delhi must not be hesitant. It cannot afford to miss the boat again.
[Meidyatama Suryodiningrat, The Jakarta Post, New Delhi]
Monday, June 18, 2007
Is India ready to be part of Southeast Asia again?
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